Russia showing muscles with military build-up close to Ukraine, March-April 2021
Open-source information allegedly shows Russia amassing military hardware close to the Ukraine border amid NATO’s concerns. How an OSINT methodology can help moving beyond information, to intelligence?
BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)
Since at least March 27, 2021, Russia appears to be amassing military hardware near the Ukraine border as tensions arise in the Donas region. NATO condemns this military build-up, while Russia warns the escalation could destroy Ukraine.
Rising tensions in Donbas
Tensions have been escalating in the Donbas region in the last days of March 2021 as Russia appeared to be moving military hardware and establishing supply lines near the Ukraine border, allegedly in accordance with the preparation for exercises and to maintain combat readiness. This explanation is not agreed upon in Kyiv, which has labelled Russia’s posture as openly aggressive and threatening.
“[…] Moscow holds 32,700 troops in Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, while its officers command 28,000 separatist servicemen stationed in temporarily occupied territories in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine, Western countries and NATO accuse Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons to prop up separatists. Moscow says it only provides political and humanitarian support to the rebels and says Russians fighting in Ukraine are volunteers.”
Crimea’s water crisis: an accelerating factor?
A severe water crisis is hitting Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014 and started the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Water scarcity is so serious that it is turning the peninsula — strategically central to the Kremlin — into a hostile, dry bottleneck, while leaving locals in a chronic water shortage.
Ukraine’s leverage over water supplies appears to be central to their fighting strategy against the Russian occupation.
Today, the North Crimean Canal’s water levels seem dangerously low, as shown by satellite imagery.
Crimea is strategically relevant to Russia as it secures continued access to Sevastopol, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is stationed, and more importantly, represents the gateway to throwing geopolitical influence over Ukraine.
The OSCE: regional monitoring
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with 57 participating States in North America, Europe and Asia, is the largest regional security organisation in the world.
Back in July 2020, the OSCE succeeded in brokering an agreement between Ukraine and Russia and promoted a ceasefire. On 22 July 2020, the so-called Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine (TCG), bringing together representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE, discussed the resolution of the war in eastern Ukraine, yet the agreement has been so far repeatedly violated. In a nutshell, according to UNIAN Information Agency:
Line of Contact, the “New Berlin Wall”
On March 26, 2021, 4 Ukrainian soldiers were reported killed following an increase of ceasefire violations across the Line of Contact. The Line is also referred to as the “New Berlin Wall” as people have experienced the closure of crossing points in the past year in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, being unable to cross and meet relatives as well as have access to administrative and health services.
A morning update on April 2, 2021, by the Ukrainian Joint Force Operation (JFO) Command on Facebook reports 2 wounded in action (WIA) amid 13 ceasefire violations:
The report translates as:
Morning report on the situation in the area of the Joint Forces operation as of 7.00 on April 2, 2021
Glory to Ukraine!
Russian occupation forces continue to shell provocative positions of Ukrainian defenders, with the aim of further accusations of violating the ceasefire.
During the past 24 hours, on April 1, in the area of the Joint Forces Operation, the armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 13 times.
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine reports accordingly in their Daily Report 75/2021 issued on April 1, 2021:
Social media sources: Russia military hardware on the road
Allegedly, Russian build-up started being reported on social media platforms on March 27, 2021.
Following updates on the platform Live Map, it is possible to see information streamed in the feed bar on the left, and pinpointed on the map on the right:
Others report first transfers being conducted in Crimea at least starting March 24, 2021:
Twitter user @GirkinGirkin has been especially prolific in sharing video footage and it is worth following to keep updated on the current situation.
Military convoys mapped
Among open-source investigators reporting on the unfolding events, the Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam_en) has provided in-depth analysis and mapping of videos circulating on social media, as locals continue to report from the ground, especially in Crimea and Rostov Oblast.
It is difficult to estimate the scale of this build-up activity, yet sources suggest that starting March 26, 2021, agricultural machinery suppliers started lacking railway platforms and analysts see this as indicative of large scale operations.
Ukraine’s statement
On March 30, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Ruslan Khomchak accused Russia of an increasingly aggressive posture, yet the Kremlin has denied the allegation, attributing their own acts as a response to Kyiv’s behaviour.
US and NATO allies’ response
As of April 1, 2021, US and NATO allies have heightened watch level.
On March 31, 2021, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, and US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called top military leaders in Russia and Ukraine expressing concerns about Russian military movements in Eastern Ukraine.
Also, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andrii Taran held a telephone conversation with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
NATO has condemned Russia’s build-up, although Russia blames Ukraine and warns escalation could “destroy” Ukraine.
Today, April 2, 2021, open-source flight monitoring shows USAF Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk, a high-altitude, remotely-piloted, surveillance aircraft, flying above the Black Sea.
Also, a USAF Lockheed Martin C-130-J-30 Hercules airlifter has been spotted flying from Ramstein, Germany, to Kyiv, Ukraine, departing at 0835 CEST:
Russian military flight activity, instead, has been highlighted by @Archer83Able (another great account for open-source information) on Twitter.
Lastly, according to Russian Agency TASS, Ukraine is blamed for its provocative posture and Russia will be act subsequently to ensure its security. Russia also laments an increase of foreign spy planes along borders:
The situation is ongoing.
Key judgements
- Russia’s military build-up could signal a reprisal action against Ukraine’s activity along the Line of Contact, and it is likely that this could be a show of muscles only.
- Yet, NATO fears the worst can happen, while the 2020 OSCE-brokered agreement — constantly violated — makes the conflict not frozen at all.
- It is hard to discern Russian intentions amid Ukraine’s conflict landscape, the Crimean water crisis threatening the Kremlin’s strategic gem in the Black Sea, and the need for Russia to test Biden’s administration on the Eastern flank of NATO.
Some OSINT methodology
- Great Twitter accounts managed by OSINT researchers provide information in real-time, although verification is always needed, as well as corroboration.
Tweetdeck is necessary to have an overview of different keywords and accounts, filtering through streams of real-time information in an (almost) tidy fashion. - For real-time monitoring purposes, Live Map helps to sift through streams of social media information, allowing for a quick overview of events across the map.
- Flightradar24 is key to flight monitoring, easy to use, really powerful also in its free version.
- Search engines to exploit keywords in Telegram, such as Telegram Analytics (in the example, a query for “Donbas”), is another asset:
- Official accounts and websites of parties involved, like the Kremlin, the Russian MoD, or the Ukrainian Joint Force Operation (JFO) Command, are useful to balance narratives (if this were an easy task!); specialised sources, as ReliefWeb or the OSCE websites, are extremely useful for reliable data and context understanding.
- Leaked official documents can be game-changers in a gathering process, yet it is easier said than done. If we try a boolean query as simple as
<”строковий призов” ext:pdf>
(“conscription” in Ukrainian)
And then we filter results to the target time-frame (last week), we can find some results.
Including a recent document (March 29, 2021) by Kyiv City Administration, n°704:
— translated with Yandex:
